English TCG · Measured Pack Data · Updated Daily
30th Celebration Pull Rates: 1 in How Many Packs?
Measured from community pack-opening logs — not guesses. Every rarity’s real odds, the math for pulling one specific card, and a calculator priced at what packs actually cost today.
How we measure
Rates are aggregated from public community pack-opening logs recorded since the September 16 release (~800 packs so far) and cross-checked against the set’s printed structure. The Pokémon Company never publishes official odds. Rare tiers carry real sample variance — treat figures as ±20% until samples grow — and every number on this page re-renders from live data, so it tightens automatically as more openings land. Pack structure: 5 cards per pack, one always a holo Pikachu from the 30-artist subset.
The quick answer
A pull rate is how many packs it takes, on average, to hit one card of a given rarity. From ~800 community-logged 30th Celebration packs: Double Rare ≈ 1 in 4.4 packs, Illustration Rare ≈ 1 in 5.6, Classic Collection reprint ≈ 1 in 10.5, Special Illustration Rare ≈ 1 in 19.8, and Futuristic Rare ≈ 1 in 100. The secret RGB Mew sits far beyond all of these — rumored on the order of one per several thousand packs.
But “a” card and “the” card are different bets: hitting any Illustration Rare is easy; hitting the one you want means dividing that rate across all 18 of them — roughly 1 in 100 packs. That division is what the table and calculator below do for you.
Every rarity: any-card odds vs specific-card odds
| Rarity | Cards | Any card of this tier | One specific card | Top card right now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 68 | every pack | — |  Umbreon #91 — $1.99 |
| Rare | 18 | every pack | — |  Mew #65 — $2.16 |
| Double Rare | 12 | 1 in 4.4 | 1 in ~53 |  Mew ex #66 — $6.20 |
| Illustration Rare | 18 | 1 in 5.6 | 1 in ~101 |  Meowth #144 — $17.15 |
| Classic Collection | 30 | 1 in 10.5 | 1 in ~315 |  Lugia #149 — $305.57 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 10 | 1 in 19.8 | 1 in ~198 |  Mew ex #152 — $147.66 |
| Pikachu Rare | 30 | every pack | — |  Pikachu #40 — $4.72 |
| Futuristic Rare | 2 | 1 in 100 | 1 in ~200 |  Mew ex #158 — $89.61 |
| RGB Mew (secret) | 3 | ~1 in 1000s* | rarer still | The $20K secret chase — full page → |
Measured from ~800 community-logged packs in release week; treat every figure as ±20% until samples grow. *RGB Mew odds are community rumor (1-in-3,000 is the number quoted most) — no tracker has enough hits for a real estimate. Official odds are never published by The Pokémon Company.
Pull-odds calculator: your packs, your chances
One number changes everything this release: packs are trading at roughly 1.0× MSRP — about $4.50 per pack on the resale market (no loose packs exist at retail; the cheapest MSRP path is the $26.99 six-pack Booster Bundle, $4.50/pack, if you can find one). The calculator prices your rips at today’s real market, refreshed daily.
Any Common: about 1 in 1 packs · One specific Common card (of 68): about 1 in 68 packs · several per pack — guaranteed
That’s the whole singles-vs-packs argument in two bars: tier hits come steadily, but a specific chase card usually costs less to buy outright than the packs it takes to pull it.
Worked examples collectors actually ask
- “How many packs for the Classic Collection Lugia?” Any CC hit is 1 in ~10.5; there are 30 CC cards → the Lugia specifically is ~1 in 315 packs — ≈ $1,418 of packs at MSRP, ≈ $1,418 at today’s pack market. The single trades far below either number.
- “Will 36 packs get me a Futuristic Rare?” At 1 in 100 per pack: about a 30% chance. Two FRs exist, so the exact one you want is ~17% — and 36 packs currently cost ≈ $162 on the resale market.
- “What do 36 packs actually yield?” On the measured rates: ≈ 8 Double Rares, ≈ 6 Illustration Rares, ≈ 3–4 Classic Collection reprints, ≈ 2 SIRs — and a coin-flip-ish shot at the big slots. (English 30th Celebration has no standard booster box — packs come via Bundles, blisters, ETBs and collections.)
Frequently asked questions
What are the 30th Celebration pull rates?
From community-tracked openings (~800 packs so far): Double Rares about 1 in 4.4 packs, Illustration Rares 1 in 5.6, Classic Collection reprints 1 in 10.5, Special Illustration Rares 1 in 19.8, and the two Futuristic Rares (Mew ex and Mewtwo ex) about 1 in 100 packs. The Pokémon Company never publishes official odds; these are measured rates and they tighten as more packs are logged.
How many packs to pull one SPECIFIC card?
Divide the tier rate by your odds of hitting the right card within it. Example: any Illustration Rare is ~1 in 5.6 packs and there are ~18 of them — so one specific Illustration Rare is roughly 1 in 100 packs: about $450 of packs at the $4.50 MSRP, and well over $1,500 at current resale pack prices. A specific Special Illustration Rare (10 cards at 1 in 19.8) is roughly 1 in 200 packs. Buying the single is almost always cheaper.
How rare are Classic Collection cards like the Lugia?
Any Classic Collection reprint lands about 1 in 10.5 packs, but there are 30 of them — so a specific one, like Lugia #149/128, works out to roughly 1 in 315 packs on early data. The subset headliners are why people rip; the math is why the singles market exists.
What is the rarest card in 30th Celebration?
The secret RGB Mew trio (Mew R/RGB, G/RGB and B/RGB) — absent from the printed checklist, with community estimates on the order of one per several thousand packs and early sales reported around $20,000. Beyond those, the rarest listed tier is Futuristic Rare (Mew ex #158 and Mewtwo ex #157) at roughly 1 in 100 packs each pull, ~1 in 200 for the specific one you want.
Is it better to buy packs or singles?
For a specific chase card, singles win by a wide margin — especially this release, where sealed product trades around 3-4x MSRP (a $26.99 six-pack Booster Bundle resells for over $100, making real pack cost $16-20). A specific SIR averages roughly $900 of packs at MSRP and $3,000+ at street pack prices, but trades far below either as a single. The calculator on this page shows the exact break-even for any rarity and pack count.
Is there really a Pikachu in every 30th Celebration pack?
Yes — every booster pack contains one guaranteed holo Pikachu from the 30-card Pikachu subset, each illustrated by a different artist (one per year of the franchise). Since the slot is guaranteed, the chase math is about WHICH one: any specific artist’s Pikachu is roughly a 1-in-30-packs pull.
How much do 30th Celebration packs cost?
There are no single booster packs at retail in English — every pack ships inside a product. The cheapest MSRP path is the $26.99 Booster Bundle (6 packs, $4.50 per pack); 2-pack blisters are $9.99 ($5.00 per pack). On the resale market, loose packs and sealed products currently trade around 3-4x those numbers, roughly $16-20 per pack.