English TCG · Measured Pack Data · Live Prices
Surging Sparks Pull Rates: 1 in How Many Packs?
Home of the Pikachu ex SIR — one of the hardest modern chases. The measured ladder is steep: SIRs around one per 87 packs (two and a half booster boxes), golds near one in 188.
How we measure
Odds come from TCGplayer's published sample plus community trackers — the largest samples publicly recorded for this set. The Pokémon Company never publishes official pull rates; treat rare tiers as ±20%. Card counts, prices and pack costs on this page come from CardPrice’s own live market data and refresh daily.
Every tier: any-card odds vs specific-card odds
| Tier | Cards | Any card of this tier | One specific card | Top card right now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 18 | 1 in 6 | 1 in ~108 |  Latias ex #76 — $5.82 |
| Ultra Rare | 21 | 1 in 15 | 1 in ~315 |  Pikachu ex #219 — $29.83 |
| Illustration Rare | 23 | 1 in 13 | 1 in ~299 |  Latios #203 — $35.72 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 8 | 1 in 20 | 1 in ~160 |  Enriching Energy #191 — $4.47 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 11 | 1 in 87 | 1 in ~957 |  Pikachu ex #238 — $286.51 |
| Hyper Rare (Gold) | 6 | 1 in 188 | 1 in ~1,128 |  Pikachu ex #247 — $82.40 |
Pull-odds calculator: your packs, your chances
Loose Surging Sparks packs trade around $8.40 today — roughly 1.9× the $4.49 print-era MSRP. The calculator prices your rips at the live number.
Any Double Rare: about 1 in 6 packs · One specific Double Rare card (of 18): about 1 in 108 packs
That’s the whole singles-vs-packs argument in two bars: tier hits come steadily, but a specific chase card usually costs less to buy outright than the packs it takes to pull it.
The cards everyone is chasing
- Pikachu ex #238 — $286.51
Latias ex #239 — $187.06
Milotic ex #237 — $124.10- Pikachu ex #247 — $82.40
Durant ex #236 — $39.88
Frequently asked questions
What are the Surging Sparks pull rates?
Measured from TCGplayer's published sample plus community trackers: Double Rare about 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare about 1 in 15 packs, Illustration Rare about 1 in 13 packs, ACE SPEC Rare about 1 in 20 packs, Special Illustration Rare about 1 in 87 packs, Hyper Rare (Gold) about 1 in 188 packs. The Pokémon Company never publishes official odds; these are measured rates with real sample variance.
How many packs to pull a specific Surging Sparks chase card?
Divide the tier rate across the pool: any Special Illustration Rare is about 1 in 87 packs and there are 11 of them, so one specific SIR runs roughly 1 in 957 packs — about $8,038.80 of packs at today's prices. Buying the single is almost always cheaper.
Is it better to buy Surging Sparks packs or singles?
Packs currently trade around $8.40 each. For any specific chase card the singles market wins by a wide margin; ripping pays in fun and tier-level hits, not expected value. The calculator shows the exact break-even for any tier and pack count.
How much do Surging Sparks packs cost?
Print-era MSRP was $4.49 per pack; loose packs currently trade around $8.40 on the resale market. All prices on this page refresh daily from live market data.